国际金银价格今日加速上涨，现货黄金一度突破5090美元/盎司至5093.18美元历史新高位，日内暴涨超100美元；现货白银一度升破109美元/盎司，亦创历史新高。
International gold and silver prices accelerated their rise today, with spot gold briefly breaking through the 5090 USD/ounce level to reach a new high of 5093.18 USD/ounce, surging by over 100 USD intraday; spot silver also briefly rose above 109 USD/ounce, setting a new record high.
美元走软以及地缘政治紧张局势引发金银价新一轮暴涨。此外，美国政府部分停摆的风险上升，也提升了黄金的避险吸引力。美元指数近日持续下挫，今日盘中一度跌至96.9360，为连续第三日下跌，创2025年9月以来新低。这一走势引发市场猜测，美国可能会在日本提振日元的努力中提供协助。
The weakening dollar and geopolitical tensions have triggered a new round of surges in precious metal prices. Additionally, the risk of a partial government shutdown in the U.S. has increased gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. The U.S. Dollar Index has been declining recently, hitting a low of 96.9360 in intraday trading today, marking three consecutive days of declines and a new low since September 2025. This trend has fueled market speculation that the U.S. might assist Japan in its efforts to weaken the yen.
高盛在最新报告中，将黄金今年底目标价从4900美元/盎司上调至5400美元/盎司，理由是私人部门投资者和央行对黄金的需求不断增长。而知名投行杰富瑞集团更是喊出6600美元/盎司的惊人目标。
In its latest report, Goldman Sachs raised its 12-month target price for gold from 4900 USD/ounce to 5400 USD/ounce, citing the growing demand from private investors and central banks. Meanwhile, the renowned investment bank JPMorgan Chase has set an even more ambitious target of 6600 USD/ounce.
分析人士指出，全球秩序似乎正在崩溃，美国明尼阿波利斯发生的暴力、有关美国干预伊朗的讨论仍在继续。就黄金价格走势而言，我们正处于一个季节性回调的尾声。这是需要保持谨慎的一个原因，但如果价格突破5000美元而没有出现任何实质性的获利回吐，那将意味着贵金属市场正处于一次千载难逢的动能交易之中。
Analysts note that the global order seems to be collapsing, with violence in Minneapolis, Minnesota, and discussions about U.S. intervention in Iran still ongoing. Regarding the gold price trend, we are at the end of a seasonal pullback. This is one reason to remain cautious, but if the price breaks through 5000 USD without any significant profit-taking, it would mean that the precious metals market is in an unprecedented momentum trade.
黄金股方面，，湖南黄金、招金黄金等多股涨停. In terms of gold stocks, Hunan Gold, Zhaogin Gold, and several other stocks hit the upper limit.
老铺黄金股价持续飙升，今日盘中一度涨近14%，至898港元，股价创2025年7月以来新高。花旗近日上调老铺黄金2026年及2027年盈利预测5%，表示近期门市客流量的增长势头可能会持续到农历新年。由于同店销售增长加快，抵消金价飙升导致毛利率预期下调的影响。花旗还表示，近期金价上涨引发强劲的需求，使得该公司的产品价格接近其大众市场同类产品的价格。花旗同时将今年收入预测调高6%。
Old 铺 Gold's stock price has been soaring continuously, reaching a peak of nearly 14% in intraday trading today, at HK$898, setting a new high since July 2025. Citi recently raised its profit forecasts for Old 铺 Gold for 2026 and 2027 by 5%, stating that the recent growth in foot traffic at its stores may continue until the Chinese New Year. Due to the faster growth in same-store sales, it offsets the expected decline in gross margins caused by the surge in gold prices. Citi also noted that the recent rise in gold prices has triggered strong demand, bringing the company's product prices close to those of its mass-market competitors. Citi simultaneously raised its revenue forecast for this year by 6%.
ETF方面，黄金股票ETF基金、黄金股ETF工银涨超7%；黄金股票ETF、黄金股ETF涨超6.6%。
In terms of ETFs, Gold Stock ETF funds, Gold Stock ETF Industrial Bank, surged over 7%; Gold Stock ETF, Gold Stock ETF, surged over 6.6%.
黄金股ETF跟踪中证沪深港黄金产业股票指数，指数从内地与香港市场中，选取50只市值较大且业务涉及黄金采掘、冶炼、销售的上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映内地与香港市场中黄金产业上市公司证券的整体表现，前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、山东黄金、中金黄金、赤峰黄金、招金矿业、山金国际、山东黄金、紫金矿业、紫金黄金国际、湖南黄金。
Gold Stock ETF tracks the CSI Shenzhen-Hong Kong-Gold Industry Stock Index, which selects 50 securities from the mainland and Hong Kong markets as index samples, with a focus on companies with large market capitalization involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, to reflect the overall performance of gold industry listed securities in the mainland and Hong Kong markets. The top 10 weighted stocks are Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, China Gold, Chifeng Gold, Zhaogin Mining, Shangjin International, Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, Zijin Gold International, and Hunan Gold.
经历了年初至今的快速上涨后，金价是否还有上行空间？兴业证券认为，当前市对金价的疑虑或集中于两点：其一，质疑“美美元的”叙事的有效性——2025年下半年，美元走弱压力有所缓和，以欧日为主的海外资金净流入美债；其二，市或认为中美协议推进、俄乌局势缓和、格陵兰风波暂平将削弱黄金的地缘风险溢价。若将黄金的逻辑单一聚焦于美国，眼下或有波动的“噪音”和畏高的情绪；但若水眼球大主权信用，我们可以更清楚地看见黄金配置的“确信”。黄金长期趋势未已，逻辑反转关注两放信号。综上，黄金的上涨空间来自秩序更迭下的长期逻辑，后续仍有空间。再向后看，黄金的宏观放逻辑反转可关注两放信号：一是逆球大的进程逆转，球大经济重回“放缓和”周期；二是AI技术突破带动球要素生产率跃升，从根本上的解滞胀困局。短期来看，黄金波动风险有所累积，波动率自2008年以来的历史分位数在90%以上，但考虑到长期趋势并未结束，可以伴随着短期波动进行布局。
After the rapid rise so far this year, does the gold price still have room to rise?兴业证券 believes that current market doubts about the gold price may be concentrated on two points: First, questioning the effectiveness of the "dollar narrative" — in the second half of 2025, pressure on the dollar to weaken eased, with net inflow of overseas funds, mainly from Europe and Japan, into US Treasury bonds; second, the market may believe that the advancement of Sino-US agreements, the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation, and the temporary calming of the Greenland issue will weaken gold's geopolitical risk premium. If the logic of gold is focused solely on the United States, there may be fluctuations in the "noise" and a fear of high prices at present; but if we look at the big picture of sovereign credit, we can see more clearly the "certainty" of gold allocation. The long-term trend of gold has not yet ended, and the focus should be on two reversal signals. Overall, the upward space for gold comes from the long-term logic under the change of order, and there is still room for further development. Looking further ahead, the macro reversal logic of gold can focus on two signals: First, the reversal of the process of globalization, with the global economy returning to a "slowing and" cycle; second, breakthroughs in AI technology driving a leap in global factor productivity, fundamentally resolving the stagflation 困境. In the short term, the risk of gold price fluctuations has accumulated, with the volatility at a historical percentile of over 90% since 2008, but considering that the long-term trend has not ended, it is possible to make layouts along with short-term fluctuations.
Comments